Demographic changeis today one of the key challenges of sustainable development. One aspect isthat many countries have experienced a decline in the (inner) urban populationover the past few decades due to suburbanisation and de-industrialisation. Thishas resulted in a wide range of socio-economic issues (e.g. increasedunemployment rates, decreases in revenue, degradation of properties). Due tofalling fertility rates, many cities and regions are likely to continue to“shrink” in the coming decades, even with some increases in national orregional population due to migration.
Russia, Eastern and SouthEastern European countries, and the Caucasus face significant challenges thatalthough sharing similarities with other OECD countries have unique dimensionsnot well understood. Russia from 1999 to 2009 lost 3.97% of its totalpopulation, other significant population changes in Eastern Europe over thesame time period include Bulgaria (-8.2%), Ukraine (-7.8%), Latvia (-6.1%),Albania (+5.9%) and Lithuania (+5.6%). Azerbaijan and Kosovo experienced a 10.6%and 9.0% increase in population. The majority of Eastern European countries areexperiencing an increase in their older population, from 1996-2011 Lithuaniaand Slovenia have experienced 4% increase from 1996 to 2011, followed by Latvia(3.6%) and Estonia (3.3%). A few countries have also experienced a minordecline in the proportion of population aged over 65 with Azerbaijan and Russiafrom 2006 to 2010 experiencing –a decline of 1.2% and -1.0% respectively.
New thinking isneeded to address the planning, employment, and social implications ofdemographic change dynamics. The sharing of current new experiences, policies,programmes and initiatives is a key knowledge intensive activity for addressingglobal challenges at the local level.
The seminar was organised within the framework of the OECD LEED Forum on Partnerships and LocalGovernance and its outcomes will feed into the OECD LEED Project on localscenarios of demographic change.
Tuesday, 3 July 2012
LOCAL APPROACHES TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN THE AUTONOMOUS PROVINCE OF TRENTO
Chair: Emma Clarence, Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Trento Centre for Local Development
How to deal with the demographic change is a shared priority for all European countries. The Autonomous Province of Trento is monitoring the ageing society and workforce, putting in place several initiatives from international exchange of best practices to local actions involving social partners to promote active ageing. This session will present some of those initiatives and provide the framework for the following study visits.
■ Co-operating to promote quality employment for older workers: the ESF-Age Network
Marco Milano, Consultant, ESF Office, European Service, Institutional and Legal Affairs Dept., Autonomous Province of Trento
■ Valorisation of human capital: “Pronto P.I.A.” Project – Together for elderly people
Antonia Banal, Educator, Social Activities Division, Municipality of Trento
Visit facilitator: Elisa Campestrin, Research Assistant, OECD LEED Trento Centre for Local Development
CINFORMI: Information Centre for Migration
CINFORMI is an operating service unit for social and housing policies of the Autonomous Province of Trento, which promotes appropriate action to overcome the difficulties that hinder the integration of immigrants into the community and labour market of Trentino.
Welcome and brief overview of activities
Pierluigi La Spada, Co-ordinator and Andrea Cagol, Communication Area, Information Centre for Migration (CINFORMI)
■ Elderly homecare: the role of immigrants
Serena Piovesan, Research Area, Information Centre for Migration (CINFORMI)
Alexandra Grebla, Family Assistance Area, Information Centre for Migration (CINFORMI)
Assisted living technologies: the “smart social house”
The Trentino Institute for Public Housing (ITEA), through different public-private partnerships, promotes the study of new technologies and integrated building design processes with the aim of aiding the ageing population. It has been shown that life expectancy increases if the older adult is left to live in their own home, whilst at the same time reducing hospitalisation to only that required for necessity decreases social costs. Thus the goal is to let the person live in their own home as long as possible without jeopardising their safety and comfort.
Angelita Tarenghi, Trentino Institute for Public Housing (ITEA)
Wednesday, 4 June 2012
FEEDBACK FROM DAY 1
Facilitator: Cristina Martinez, Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Programme
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT: AN OECD APPROACH
Demographic change has received little attention from the local development perspective and analysis is frequently conducted at national levels looking at data on fertility rates and population ageing. However, local institutions have a significant role to play when their communities are affected. This presentation will provide an overview of the trends of demographic change worldwide and the OECD approach to tackle these changes from the local level.
Cristina Martinez, Senior Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Programme
PANEL I: STRATEGIC APPROACHES IN RUSSIA
Chair: Arne Grove, Director, Nordic Council of Ministers Information Office in Kaliningrad
This session will discuss characteristics of demographic change, urbanisation and strategic approaches in Russia and the Baltic countries. In particular, the discussion will focus on how demographic change is impacting Russian regions and cities, urban shrinkage trends, the impact on labour market and urban life, elderly population and the local strategies in place to address these challenges.
■ Urban and regional development in Russia: the Vladivostok case
■ Basic results of the 2010 All-Russia population census
Venera Chumarina, Division Chief, Population and Health Statistics Department, and Mikhail Gundarev, Senior Expert, Department of Foreign Statistics and International Co-operation, Rosstat, Russian Federation
■ Russian demography: thinking strategy vs thinking crisis
Boris Denisov, Senior Researcher, Lab of Population Economics and Demography, Moscow University, Russian Federation
■ Central Asia as a source of cheap and marginal labor for Russia and Eastern Europe
Marat Djanbaev, Senior Technical Specialist/Entrepreneurship, International Youth Foundation, Kyrgyzstan
■ Demographic change, urbanisation, and housing in Russia: challenges of uneven development
Oleg Golubchikov, Lecturer in Urban Resilience, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom
PANEL II: STRATEGIC APPROACHES IN EASTERN EUROPE
Chair: Branislav Bleha, Head of Section of Demography and Demo-geography, Department of Human Geography and Demo-geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University, Slovak Republic
Significant population changes over Eastern Europe have occurred from 1999 to 2009: Bulgaria (-8.2%), Ukraine (-7.79%), Latvia (-6.1%) Albania (+5.93%) and Lithuania (+5.57%). Azerbaijan and Kosovo experienced 10.65% and 8.97% increase in population. The majority of the eastern European Countries are experiencing an increase in ageing population. Lithuania and Slovenia have experienced a 4% increase from 1996 to 2011, followed by Latvia (3.6%) and Estonia (3.3%). Poland has both cities that are shrinking and areas where ageing of population is notable. The session will explore these and other changes and the strategic approaches and initiatives to tackle them.
■ Socio-economic consequences of population ageing in selected Central and Eastern European countries - strategic ways of thinking and actions - the case of Małopolska
Jolanta Perek-Białas, Adjunct Professor, Warsaw School of Economics/Jagiellonian University, Poland
■ Reduction of the active population in Romania as a result of migration for employment abroad
Catalin Corneliu Ghinararu, Scientific Secretary, Management-top, National Labour Research Institute of Romania, Romania
■ Demographic and economic challenges of Latgale Region, Latvia: policy implications
Zanda Kalnina-Lukasevica, Researcher, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Latvia, Latvia
■ Some specific prospects of population policy in Slovakia
Boris Vano, Head, Demographic Research Centre, INFOSTAT, Slovak Republic
PANEL III: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES
Chair: Tomas Kucera, Ass. Professor, Demography and Geo-demography, University in Prague, Czech Republic
OECD countries and beyond are experiencing demographic changes and addressing them from different perspectives. This session will discuss experiences in Asia-Pacific, Sweden, Germany and Italy.
■ Tackling the gender gap in mid Sweden Region
Kerstin Brandelius-Johansson, Managing Director, Mid Sweden European Office in Brussels, Sweden
■ Cautionary tales from Asia and beyond
Chung-Tong Wu, Professor Emeritus, University of Western Sydney, Australia
■ Demographic change and local fiscal stress in Germany
Natalia Batz, PhD Researcher, Berlin University of Technology, Germany
■ Fertility and work-family reconciliation in Italy
Rossella Bozzon, Research Fellow and Raffaele Guetto, PhD Researcher, FamIne Project, Department of Sociology and Social Research, Faculty of Sociology, University of Trento, Italy
WORKING GROUPS – DESIGNING STRATEGIES FOR LØDZ (POLAND)
Facilitator: Cristina Martinez, Senior Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Programme
▲ Case presentation: Piotr Szukalski, Professor, University of Lødz, Poland
Participants are divided in 5-6 small groups and each group will discuss the case and propose 3 strategic pathways to combat demographic change. Each WG nominates a rapporteur.
WG Facilitators: Nicolas Buchoud, Boris Denisov, Oleg Golubchikov, Jolanta Perek-Białas, Chung-Tong Wu