MATERIALS: Strategic approaches to demographic change in Russia, Eastern Europe and OECD countries, 3-4 July 2012 (Trento, Italy)

    Demographic changeis today one of the key challenges of sustainable development. One aspect isthat many countries have experienced a decline in the (inner) urban populationover the past few decades due to suburbanisation and de-industrialisation. Thishas resulted in a wide range of socio-economic issues (e.g. increasedunemployment rates, decreases in revenue, degradation of properties). Due tofalling fertility rates, many cities and regions are likely to continue to“shrink” in the coming decades, even with some increases in national orregional population due to migration.

    Russia, Eastern and SouthEastern European countries, and the Caucasus face significant challenges thatalthough sharing similarities with other OECD countries have unique dimensionsnot well understood. Russia from 1999 to 2009 lost 3.97% of its totalpopulation, other significant population changes in Eastern Europe over thesame time period include Bulgaria (-8.2%), Ukraine (-7.8%), Latvia (-6.1%),Albania (+5.9%) and Lithuania (+5.6%). Azerbaijan and Kosovo experienced a 10.6%and 9.0% increase in population. The majority of Eastern European countries areexperiencing an increase in their older population, from 1996-2011 Lithuaniaand Slovenia have experienced 4% increase from 1996 to 2011, followed by Latvia(3.6%) and Estonia (3.3%). A few countries have also experienced a minordecline in the proportion of population aged over 65 with Azerbaijan and Russiafrom 2006 to 2010 experiencing –a decline of 1.2% and -1.0% respectively.

    New thinking isneeded to address the planning, employment, and social implications ofdemographic change dynamics. The sharing of current new experiences, policies,programmes and initiatives is a key knowledge intensive activity for addressingglobal challenges at the local level.

    The seminar was organised within the framework of the OECD LEED Forum on Partnerships and LocalGovernance and its outcomes will feed into the OECD LEED Project on localscenarios of demographic change.




    Tuesday, 3 July 2012



    Chair:  Emma Clarence, Policy  Analyst, OECD LEED Trento Centre for Local Development


    How to deal with the demographic change is a shared priority for all  European countries. The Autonomous Province of Trento is monitoring the  ageing society and workforce, putting in place several initiatives from  international exchange of best practices to local actions involving social  partners to promote active ageing. This session will present some of those  initiatives and provide the framework for the following study visits.

    ¦ Co-operating to promote quality  employment for older workers: the ESF-Age Network

    Marco Milano, Consultant, ESF Office,  European Service, Institutional and Legal Affairs Dept., Autonomous Province  of Trento

    ¦ Valorisation of human capital:  “Pronto P.I.A.” Project – Together for elderly people

    Antonia Banal, Educator,  Social Activities Division, Municipality of Trento




    Visit  facilitator: Elisa Campestrin, Research  Assistant, OECD LEED Trento Centre for Local Development


    CINFORMI: Information  Centre for Migration

    CINFORMI is an  operating service unit for social and housing policies of the Autonomous  Province of Trento, which promotes appropriate action to overcome the  difficulties that hinder the integration of immigrants into the community and  labour market of Trentino.

    Welcome and brief overview of activities

    Pierluigi La  Spada, Co-ordinator and Andrea Cagol, Communication Area, Information Centre for Migration (CINFORMI)

    ¦ Elderly homecare: the role  of immigrants

    Serena Piovesan, Research  Area, Information Centre for Migration (CINFORMI)

    Alexandra  Grebla, Family Assistance Area, Information Centre for Migration (CINFORMI)


    Assisted living  technologies: the “smart social house”

    The Trentino Institute for Public Housing (ITEA), through different  public-private partnerships, promotes the study of new technologies and integrated  building design processes with the aim of aiding the ageing population. It  has been shown that life expectancy increases if the older adult is left to  live in their own home, whilst at the same time reducing hospitalisation to  only that required for necessity decreases social costs. Thus the goal is to  let the person live in their own home as long as possible without  jeopardising their safety and comfort.

    Angelita Tarenghi, Trentino  Institute for Public Housing (ITEA)


    Wednesday, 4 June 2012



    Facilitator:  Cristina  Martinez, Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Programme


    Rapporteurs:   Marlene Deogan and Linn  Tomasdotter, Adviser European Affairs, Mid Sweden European Office  in Brussels, Sweden

    Open discussion




    Demographic change has received little attention from the local development  perspective and analysis is frequently conducted at national levels looking  at data on fertility rates and population ageing. However, local institutions  have a significant role to play when their communities are affected. This  presentation will provide an overview of the trends of demographic change  worldwide and the OECD approach to tackle these changes from the local level.

    Cristina Martinez, Senior Policy  Analyst, OECD LEED Programme




    Chair:  Arne Grove, Director, Nordic Council of Ministers Information Office in  Kaliningrad


    This session will discuss characteristics of demographic change,  urbanisation and strategic approaches in Russia and the Baltic countries. In particular, the discussion will focus on how demographic change is  impacting Russian regions and cities, urban shrinkage trends, the impact on labour  market and urban life, elderly population and the local strategies in place  to address these challenges.

    Panel experts:

    ¦ Urban and regional development in  Russia: the Vladivostok case

    Nicolas Buchoud, Director, Renaissance Urbaine Consultants, France and Ivan Kuryachiy, Urban  Planner, IRP Group, Russian Federation

    ¦ Basic results of the 2010  All-Russia population census

    Venera Chumarina, Division  Chief, Population and Health Statistics Department, and Mikhail Gundarev, Senior Expert,  Department of Foreign Statistics and International Co-operation, Rosstat,  Russian Federation

    ¦ Russian demography: thinking  strategy vs thinking crisis

    Boris Denisov, Senior  Researcher, Lab of Population Economics and Demography, Moscow University,  Russian Federation

    ¦ Central Asia as a source of cheap  and marginal labor for Russia and Eastern Europe

    Marat Djanbaev, Senior  Technical Specialist/Entrepreneurship, International Youth Foundation,  Kyrgyzstan

    ¦ Demographic change, urbanisation,  and housing in Russia: challenges of uneven development

    Oleg Golubchikov, Lecturer  in Urban Resilience, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University  of Birmingham, United Kingdom




    Chair:  Branislav Bleha, Head of Section of  Demography and Demo-geography, Department of Human Geography and Demo-geography,  Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University, Slovak Republic


    Significant population changes over Eastern  Europe have occurred from 1999 to 2009: Bulgaria (-8.2%), Ukraine (-7.79%),  Latvia (-6.1%) Albania (+5.93%) and Lithuania (+5.57%). Azerbaijan and Kosovo  experienced 10.65% and 8.97% increase in population. The majority of the  eastern European Countries are experiencing an increase in ageing population.  Lithuania and Slovenia have experienced a 4% increase from 1996 to 2011,  followed by Latvia (3.6%) and Estonia (3.3%). Poland has both cities that are  shrinking and areas where ageing of population is notable. The session will  explore these and other changes and the strategic approaches and initiatives  to tackle them.


    Panel experts:

    ¦ Socio-economic consequences of  population ageing in selected Central and Eastern European countries -  strategic ways of thinking and actions - the case of Malopolska

    Jolanta Perek-Bialas, Adjunct  Professor, Warsaw School of Economics/Jagiellonian University, Poland

    ¦ Reduction of the active population  in Romania as a result of migration for employment abroad

    Catalin Corneliu Ghinararu, Scientific  Secretary, Management-top, National Labour Research Institute of Romania,  Romania

    ¦ Demographic and economic challenges  of Latgale Region, Latvia: policy implications

    Zanda Kalnina-Lukasevica, Researcher,  Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Latvia, Latvia

    ¦ Some specific prospects of  population policy in Slovakia

    Boris Vano, Head, Demographic  Research Centre, INFOSTAT, Slovak Republic




    Chair:  Tomas Kucera, Ass.  Professor, Demography and Geo-demography, University in Prague, Czech  Republic


    OECD countries  and beyond are experiencing demographic changes and addressing them from  different perspectives. This session will discuss experiences in  Asia-Pacific, Sweden, Germany and Italy.

    Panel experts:

    ¦ Tackling  the gender gap in mid Sweden Region

    Kerstin Brandelius-Johansson, Managing  Director, Mid Sweden European Office in Brussels, Sweden

    ¦ Cautionary  tales from Asia and beyond

    Chung-Tong Wu, Professor  Emeritus, University of Western Sydney, Australia

    ¦ Demographic change and local fiscal stress in Germany

    Natalia Batz, PhD  Researcher, Berlin University of Technology, Germany

    ¦  Fertility and work-family reconciliation in Italy

    Rossella Bozzon, Research Fellow and Raffaele Guetto, PhD Researcher, FamIne  Project, Department of Sociology and Social Research, Faculty of Sociology,  University of Trento, Italy




    Facilitator:  Cristina  Martinez, Senior Policy Analyst, OECD LEED Programme


    ? Case presentation: Piotr Szukalski,  Professor, University of Lødz, Poland

    Participants are  divided in 5-6 small groups and each group will discuss the case and propose  3 strategic pathways to combat demographic change. Each WG nominates a  rapporteur.

    WG Facilitators: Nicolas Buchoud, Boris DenisovOleg  Golubchikov, Jolanta Perek-Bialas, Chung-Tong Wu